Guardian writers' pre-season predictions were mostly on the money, though we called it wrong at the very top and very bottom and needed Kenny Dalglish to rescue Liverpool
'Not too convincing' – a pre-season verdict on Manchester United. Photograph: Richard Sellers-Sportsphoto
Readers, we are about to go back in time. You may, at this point, decide to put an upturned colander on your head and make high-pitched squeaky sounds while turning the light on and off, depending on who might be watching, and whether you are six. Most importantly you need to forget, for the moment, anything you may have learned about football in the last eight and a half months. Because we are going back to a very specific point in the past, a time when Manchester United's future looked pretty dismal, when Jason Euell was considered likely to be an important factor in Blackpool's Premier League success, when Martin O'Neill managed Aston Villa and Chris Hughton was a hero at Newcastle United.
It was a little harsh to ask our writers to predict the fortunes of teams at the very start of August, when the transfer window was so emphatically open and the mettle of the teams remained very much untested. Within a fortnight of publication, for example, Stoke City had acquired an entirely new strike force in the shape of Kenwyne Jones and Jon Walters. But then again asking them to do their predictions very much later would have been a bit pointless; by then they would just have been dictions.
The league was not slow to reveal its secrets – by the end of October, when most teams had played 10 games, the last seven places contained all of the eventual bottom six – but last summer all we had to work on was the combination of intuition, guesswork and, of course, an astonishingly deep well of detailed knowledge and tactical understanding. Anyway, enough excuses, let's lay our cards on the table. Back in August, when we asked our writers to predict what the final table would look like, then added everything up and divided by whatever in a process that seemed fairly mathematical at the time, this is what we came up with (actual positions and Bet365 pre-season odds in brackets):
1. Chelsea (2, 6-4fav)
2. Manchester City (3, 5-1)
3. Manchester United (1, 5-2)
4. Arsenal (4, 13-2)
5. Tottenham Hotspur (5, 33-1)
6. Liverpool (6, 12-1)
7. Everton (7, 100-1)
8. Aston Villa (9, 200-1)
9. Fulham (8, 1000-1)
10. Bolton Wanderers (14, 5000-1)
11. Stoke City (13 2500-1)
12. Sunderland (10, 1000-1)
13. Birmingham City (18, 2500-1)
14. West Ham United (20, 2500-1)
15. Blackburn Rovers (15, 5000-1)
16. Newcastle United (12, 750-1)
17. Wigan Athletic (16, 7500-1)
18. Wolverhampton Wanderers (17, 7500-1)
19. West Bromwich Albion (11, 10000-1)
20. Blackpool (19, 10000-1)
A few anomalies immediately jump out. We thought Manchester United would come only third, the sole serious miscalculation in an otherwise pretty accurate top nine. We were way too enthusiastic about Birmingham City and West Ham United, and considerably too harsh on West Bromwich Albion and, to a lesser extent, Newcastle, though a season of doom is traditionally assumed for all newly-promoted sides. The remaining 15 teams were pretty accurately assessed, for all that we only got five positions actually right.
Why were we so kind to Birmingham? Experience might have played a major part: before the 2009‑10 season we tipped them to come 17th only to watch horrified as they secured ninth place. But then precisely the opposite thing had happened with West Ham, who we thought would come 11th and instead finished 17th, making our optimism this season appear, with hindsight, frankly a little puzzling. "Avram Grant's experience at Portsmouth and with Chelsea, plus his devotion to detail, suggests West Ham can hope to finish at least five or six places higher," we merrily trilled.
But then you weren't any better, with just one of 149 comments predicting relegation (My prediction is that Randall Floyd will be wearing a smug grin if he's reading this). "I predict we'll be safe by March," said Westmike, summing up popular opinion. "I think if Grant can get it right, they have the players to finish in the top 10," wrote RokyK.
We were even more confident about Birmingham. "There is not too much that Alex McLeish needs to fix and little reason to believe that Birmingham will fall victims to second-season syndrome," we wrote. Again, though, you were no better with not a single poster predicting relegation, although a couple did think they might at least have a fight on their hands. "Birmingham look like they're going places to me," wrote byebyebadman, and he didn't mean Barnsley and Doncaster. "I think they'll nick 8th spot."
Perversely, the one we probably got most wrong is one of the five that appears most right – Kenny Dalglish can expect a particularly warm welcome next time he pops in to Guardian Towers, having rescued what looked all set to be a horrifically inaccurate Liverpool prediction. Roy Hodgson, sacked in January with the club in crisis and in 12th place, had been merrily described as "a man who can be trusted to make the best of whatever conditions he has to work in". Fans moaning about his appointment were dismissed as "fools". "He has improved virtually every side he has handled," we hummed. "A Hodgson camp tends to be a happy one." We even thought that "under Hodgson's tutelage, Ryan Babel could finally release the magnificent dervish that lurks somewhere within him".
It could have been worse – before the 2009‑10 season, we had predicted Liverpool to come first. But if Liverpool's decision to sack Hodgson rescued an otherwise totally wayward prediction of their fortunes, West Bromwich's decision to appoint him scuppered an otherwise fairly accurate one – they were 17th when Roberto Di Matteo was sacked at the start of February. What's more, we were writing at a time when they had no prolific strikers and were eyeing Liverpool's David Ngog. A fortnight later they brought in Peter Odemwingie, who went on to score 15 league goals, and the rest is history.
Anyway, as we climb gingerly into the stocks, let us provide you with a few more rotten tomatoes to throw in our direction in the shape of a rather pessimistic assessment of our eventual champions. "It is beholden upon naysayers to dream up new reasons why the crafty Italian will fail to deliver the title again," we said in our Chelsea preview. "Few spring readily to mind." "I am not too convinced about Manchester United," our chief football writer, Kevin McCarra, surmised, adding that "Arsenal are capable of taking it". In their team preview, we worried about United's over-reliance on Wayne Rooney, who had just endured a particularly unimpressive World Cup: "This summer they added useful defensive cover in the form of Chris Smalling and signed one of the most eye-catching strikers at the World Cup in Javier Hernández, yet still the feeling prevails that United are about to go backwards."
This time there was no lack of readers ready to disagree. "I think United will win quite comfortably," said CollaroyAl. "United were one point behind Chelsea last year and look no weaker, while Chelsea look no stronger," wrote davidsl. "Every season it's the same old rubbish by 'experts' writing Man Utd off. Every season Man Utd prove them wrong," added Manchesterisunited. And so it proved. Same time next year, then?
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