Will Beijing be aggressive or diplomatic?

Nation's leaders prepare to be tested at three summits by neighbours and competitors

Greg Torode in Hanoiand Ng Tze-wei in Beijing

China faces a string of international tests in the coming weeks at the East Asia, G20 and Apec summits - events that will force the nation's top leaders to confront both nervous neighbours and strategic competitors determined to quietly pressure Beijing on a range of issues.

Regional and US demands for China to allow the yuan to appreciate further and concerns over recent Chinese assertiveness in the disputed South China and East China seas are expected to dominate in what has been a bruising diplomatic year for the mainland.

Premier Wen Jiabao arrives in Hanoi, Vietnam, today to face a shifting strategic landscape as East Asian nations edge towards Washington to balance Beijing's clout.

His appearance ahead of Saturday's Asean summit marks the start of a flurry of diplomacy. President Hu Jintao will attend next month's G20 meetings in South Korea and the annual Apec leaders' meeting in Japan.

Wen will be the most senior Chinese leader to meet East Asian counterparts since regional and US concerns about Beijing's activities in the South China Sea were expressed at an Asean security meeting in July.

While the yuan is not officially on the agenda, it is expected to be discussed ahead of the G20 economic summit, as regional currencies strengthen against the US dollar.

Wen could also meet Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan for the first formal Sino-Japanese leaders' meeting since ties unravelled over Tokyo's arrest and 17-day detention of a Chinese fishing captain off the disputed Daioyu Islands last month.

But both Chinese and Japanese envoys said the meeting was far from finalised.

"We are close but just not there yet," said one Japanese diplomat familiar with arrangements.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Dr Ma Zhaoxu said in Beijing on Tuesday: "We hope the Japanese side will take concrete action to create the necessary conditions and atmosphere for meetings between the two sides."

The region is eyeing nervously the Sino-Japanese tensions, with some diplomats seeing a meeting as a sign of a fresh effort by the mainland to deal with regional concerns.

"We are all wondering which China will turn up," said one Asean envoy. "Will we see more backroom pressure and stridency from Beijing, or will we see the start of a charm offensive to make up for lost ground?

"No one wants to open a new front of attack on Beijing right now ? it is more a matter of bedding down everything that has happened this year and quietly keeping the pressure on. It is all about getting the balance of relations right. I think Asean, the US and the wider region are in the mood for a smooth meeting."

Chinese analysts said Beijing believed any pressure would be temporary and would not affect its regional positions and strategies.

Professor Ju Hailong , of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies at Jinan University, said pressures from the US and the Asean countries were long-standing and China was used to them. Any rise in pressure will only be temporary.

"China might step up co-operation with these countries to express its goodwill, but will not be changing its overall strategy towards the region," Ju said.

"China and Asean countries are flesh and blood, and rely heavily on one another economically."

The 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations has proved difficult turf for Beijing this year as two significant trends converge.

Just as Asean countries have sought new ways to stand up to perceived bullying by Beijing, Washington has seized the opportunity to make good on pledges to re-engage a region that felt neglected by the US in recent years.

The South China Sea has proved the flashpoint, with the US backing Asean demands for ongoing disputes to be peacefully resolved through regional negotiation - a strike against Chinese insistence that claimants settle one-on-one with Beijing.

China and Vietnam claim the Spratly and Paracel archipelagoes in their entirety, while Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei claim parts.

Those trends will continue over the next few days, with the South China Sea expected to be hotly discussed and Asean inviting the US and Russia to join its annual East Asian Summit from next year.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will be in Hanoi for the sessions. Clinton led the charge against China over the South China Sea at the Asean forum in July.

The meeting represents the last throw of the dice for Vietnam as Asian chairman before it hands over leadership to Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest nation and one with a traditionally difficult relationship with Beijing.

Professor Jin Canrong of Renmin University said maritime disputes should not arise at these summits since the focus is on trade and co-operation. In addition, all parties involved shared the implicit understanding that they couldn't afford really upsetting relations with the mainland.

"The US knows it needs to maintain a cordial relationship with China, with Hu Jintao's pending visit in January," Jin said. "Vietnam is also very cautious. It's the host of the summit. And it knows that if China gets upset with any Asean countries, it will probably be the first to take the wrath.

"The US might wish to stir up some troubles for China among the Asean countries; Asean might wish to gain leverage against China by getting closer with the US, but both sides know these are impractical wishes."

The only exception is Japan.

"Japan might be more serious in building a closer alliance among itself, India and the US," Jin said.

The Asean 10 will stage a joint meeting with the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea tomorrow before the full summit on Saturday.

The East Asia Summit involves Asean, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, with the US and Russia as observers.