As I write this, tomorrow is Tuesday, which is a cardio day. I'll spend  five minutes warming up on the VersaClimber, a towering machine that  requires you to move your arms and legs simultaneously. Then I'll do 30  minutes on a stair mill. On Wednesday a personal trainer will work me  like a farm animal for an hour, sometimes to the point that I am dizzy —  an abuse for which I pay as much as I spend on groceries in a week.  Thursday is "body wedge" class, which involves another exercise  contraption, this one a large foam wedge from which I will push myself  up in various hateful ways for an hour. Friday will bring a 5.5-mile  run, the extra half-mile my grueling expiation of any gastronomical  indulgences during the week. 
 I have exercised like this — obsessively, a bit grimly — for years, but  recently I began to wonder: Why am I doing this? Except for a two-year  period at the end of an unhappy relationship — a period when I  self-medicated with lots of Italian desserts — I have never been  overweight. One of the most widely accepted, commonly repeated  assumptions in our culture is that if you exercise, you will lose  weight. But I exercise all the time, and since I ended that relationship  and cut most of those desserts, my weight has returned to the same 163  lb. it has been most of my adult life. I still have gut fat that hangs  over my belt when I sit. Why isn't all the exercise wiping it out? (Read "The Year in Medicine 2008: From A to Z.")   It's a question many of us could ask. More than 45 million Americans now  belong to a health club, up from 23 million in 1993. We spend some $19  billion a year on gym memberships. Of course, some people join and never  go. Still, as one major study — the Minnesota Heart Survey — found,  more of us at least say we exercise regularly. The survey ran  from 1980, when only 47% of respondents said they engaged in regular  exercise, to 2000, when the figure had grown to 57%. 
 And yet obesity figures have risen dramatically in the same period: a  third of Americans are obese, and another third count as overweight by  the Federal Government's definition. Yes, it's entirely possible that  those of us who regularly go to the gym would weigh even more if we  exercised less. But like many other people, I get hungry after I  exercise, so I often eat more on the days I work out than on the days I  don't. Could exercise actually be keeping me from losing weight? (Watch TIME's video "How to Lose Hundreds of Pounds.")  The conventional wisdom that exercise is essential for shedding pounds  is actually fairly new. As recently as the 1960s, doctors routinely  advised against rigorous exercise, particularly for older adults who  could injure themselves. Today doctors encourage even their oldest  patients to exercise, which is sound advice for many reasons: People who  regularly exercise are at significantly lower risk for all manner of  diseases — those of the heart in particular. They less often develop  cancer, diabetes and many other illnesses. But the past few years of  obesity research show that the role of exercise in weight loss has been  wildly overstated. (Read "Losing Weight: Can Exercise Trump Genes?")  "In general, for weight loss, exercise is pretty useless," says Eric  Ravussin, chair in diabetes and metabolism at Louisiana State University  and a prominent exercise researcher. Many recent studies have found  that exercise isn't as important in helping people lose weight as you  hear so regularly in gym advertisements or on shows like The Biggest Loser — or, for that matter, from magazines like this one. 
 The basic problem is that while it's true that exercise burns calories  and that you must burn calories to lose weight, exercise has another  effect: it can stimulate hunger. That causes us to eat more, which in  turn can negate the weight-loss benefits we just accrued. Exercise, in  other words, isn't necessarily helping us lose weight. It may even be  making it harder.  
 The Compensation Problem 
Earlier this year, the peer-reviewed journal PLoS ONE — PLoS is  the nonprofit Public Library of Science — published a remarkable study  supervised by a colleague of Ravussin's, Dr. Timothy Church, who holds  the rather grand title of chair in health wisdom at LSU. Church's team  randomly assigned into four groups 464 overweight women who didn't  regularly exercise. Women in three of the groups were asked to work out  with a personal trainer for 72 min., 136 min., and 194 min. per week,  respectively, for six months. Women in the fourth cluster, the control  group, were told to maintain their usual physical-activity routines. All  the women were asked not to change their dietary habits and to fill out  monthly medical-symptom questionnaires. 
 The findings were surprising. On average, the women in all the groups,  even the control group, lost weight, but the women who exercised —  sweating it out with a trainer several days a week for six months — did  not lose significantly more weight than the control subjects did. (The  control-group women may have lost weight because they were filling out  those regular health forms, which may have prompted them to consume  fewer doughnuts.) Some of the women in each of the four groups actually  gained weight, some more than 10 lb. each. 
 What's going on here? Church calls it compensation, but you and I might  know it as the lip-licking anticipation of perfectly salted,  golden-brown French fries after a hard trip to the gym. Whether because  exercise made them hungry or because they wanted to reward themselves  (or both), most of the women who exercised ate more than they did before  they started the experiment. Or they compensated in another way, by  moving around a lot less than usual after they got home. (Read "Run For Your Lives.") 
 The findings are important because the government and various medical  organizations routinely prescribe more and more exercise for those who  want to lose weight. In 2007 the American College of Sports Medicine and  the American Heart Association issued new guidelines stating that "to  lose weight ... 60 to 90 minutes of physical activity may be necessary."  That's 60 to 90 minutes on most days of the week, a level that  not only is unrealistic for those of us trying to keep or find a job but  also could easily produce, on the basis of Church's data, ravenous  compensatory eating. 
 It's true that after six months of working out, most of the exercisers  in Church's study were able to trim their waistlines slightly — by about  an inch. Even so, they lost no more overall body fat than the control  group did. Why not?  
 Church, who is 41 and has lived in Baton Rouge for nearly three years,  has a theory. "I see this anecdotally amongst, like, my wife's friends,"  he says. "They're like, 'Ah, I'm running an hour a day, and I'm not  losing any weight.'" He asks them, "What are you doing after you run?"  It turns out one group of friends was stopping at Starbucks for muffins  afterward. Says Church: "I don't think most people would appreciate  that, wow, you only burned 200 or 300 calories, which you're going to  neutralize with just half that muffin." (Read "Too Fat? Read Your E-mail.") 
 You might think half a muffin over an entire day wouldn't matter much,  particularly if you exercise regularly. After all, doesn't exercise turn  fat to muscle, and doesn't muscle process excess calories more  efficiently than fat does? 
 Yes, although the muscle-fat relationship is often misunderstood. According to calculations published in the journal Obesity Research  by a Columbia University team in 2001, a pound of muscle burns  approximately six calories a day in a resting body, compared with the  two calories that a pound of fat burns. Which means that after you work  out hard enough to convert, say, 10 lb. of fat to muscle — a major  achievement — you would be able to eat only an extra 40 calories per  day, about the amount in a teaspoon of butter, before beginning to gain  weight. Good luck with that. 
 Fundamentally, humans are not a species that evolved to dispose of many  extra calories beyond what we need to live. Rats, among other species,  have a far greater capacity to cope with excess calories than we do  because they have more of a dark-colored tissue called brown fat. Brown  fat helps produce a protein that switches off little cellular units  called mitochondria, which are the cells' power plants: they help turn  nutrients into energy. When they're switched off, animals don't get an  energy boost. Instead, the animals literally get warmer. And as their  temperature rises, calories burn effortlessly. (See TIME's health and medicine covers.)
 Because rodents have a lot of brown fat, it's very difficult to make  them obese, even when you force-feed them in labs. But humans — we're  pathetic. We have so little brown fat that researchers didn't even  report its existence in adults until earlier this year. That's one  reason humans can gain weight with just an extra half-muffin a day: we  almost instantly store most of the calories we don't need in our regular  ("white") fat cells. 
 All this helps explain why our herculean exercise over the past 30 years  — all the personal trainers, StairMasters and VersaClimbers; all the  Pilates classes and yoga retreats and fat camps — hasn't made us  thinner. After we exercise, we often crave sugary calories like those in  muffins or in "sports" drinks like Gatorade. A standard 20-oz. bottle  of Gatorade contains 130 calories. If you're hot and thirsty after a  20-minute run in summer heat, it's easy to guzzle that bottle in 20  seconds, in which case the caloric expenditure and the caloric intake  are probably a wash. From a weight-loss perspective, you would have been  better off sitting on the sofa knitting. 
Self-Control Is like a Muscle 
Many people assume that weight is mostly a matter of willpower — that we  can learn both to exercise and to avoid muffins and Gatorade. A few of  us can, but evolution did not build us to do this for very long. In 2000  the journal Psychological Bulletin published a paper by  psychologists Mark Muraven and Roy Baumeister in which they observed  that self-control is like a muscle: it weakens each day after you use  it. If you force yourself to jog for an hour, your self-regulatory  capacity is proportionately enfeebled. Rather than lunching on a salad,  you'll be more likely to opt for pizza. 
 Some of us can will ourselves to overcome our basic psychology, but most  of us won't be very successful. "The most powerful determinant of your  dietary intake is your energy expenditure," says Steven Gortmaker, who  heads Harvard's Prevention Research Center on Nutrition and Physical  Activity. "If you're more physically active, you're going to get hungry  and eat more." Gortmaker, who has studied childhood obesity, is even  suspicious of the playgrounds at fast-food restaurants. "Why would they  build those?" he asks. "I know it sounds kind of like conspiracy theory,  but you have to think, if a kid plays five minutes and burns 50  calories, he might then go inside and consume 500 calories or even  1,000."  (Read "Why Kids' Exercise Matters Less Than We Think.") 
 Last year the International Journal of Obesity published a paper  by Gortmaker and Kendrin Sonneville of Children's Hospital Boston noting  that "there is a widespread assumption that increasing activity will  result in a net reduction in any energy gap" — energy gap being  the term scientists use for the difference between the number of  calories you use and the number you consume. But Gortmaker and  Sonneville found in their 18-month study of 538 students that when kids  start to exercise, they end up eating more — not just a little more, but  an average of 100 calories more than they had just burned. 
 If evolution didn't program us to lose weight through exercise, what did it program us to do? Doesn't exercise do anything? 
 Sure. It does plenty. In addition to enhancing heart health and helping  prevent disease, exercise improves your mental health and cognitive  ability. A study published in June in the journal Neurology found  that older people who exercise at least once a week are 30% more likely  to maintain cognitive function than those who exercise less. Another  study, released by the University of Alberta a few weeks ago, found that  people with chronic back pain who exercise four days a week have 36%  less disability than those who exercise only two or three days a week. 
 But there's some confusion about whether it is exercise — sweaty,  exhausting, hunger-producing bursts of activity done exclusively to  benefit our health — that leads to all these benefits or something far  simpler: regularly moving during our waking hours. We all need to move  more — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says our  leisure-time physical activity (including things like golfing, gardening  and walking) has decreased since the late 1980s, right around the time  the gym boom really exploded. But do we need to stress our bodies at the  gym? 
 Look at kids. In May a team of researchers at Peninsula Medical School  in the U.K. traveled to Amsterdam to present some surprising findings to  the European Congress on Obesity. The Peninsula scientists had studied  206 kids, ages 7 to 11, at three schools in and around Plymouth, a city  of 250,000 on the southern coast of England. Kids at the first school,  an expensive private academy, got an average of 9.2 hours per week of  scheduled, usually rigorous physical education. Kids at the two other  schools — one in a village near Plymouth and the other an urban school —  got just 2.4 hours and 1.7 hours of PE per week, respectively. 
 To understand just how much physical activity the kids were getting, the  Peninsula team had them wear ActiGraphs, light but sophisticated  devices that measure not only the amount of physical movement the body  engages in but also its intensity. During four one-week periods over  consecutive school terms, the kids wore the ActiGraphs nearly every  waking moment.  
 And no matter how much PE they got during school hours, when you look at  the whole day, the kids from the three schools moved the same amount,  at about the same intensity. The kids at the fancy private school  underwent significantly more physical activity before 3 p.m., but  overall they didn't move more. "Once they get home, if they are very  active in school, they are probably staying still a bit more because  they've already expended so much energy," says Alissa Frémeaux, a  biostatistician who helped conduct the study. "The others are more  likely to grab a bike and run around after school."   
 Another British study, this one from the University of Exeter, found  that kids who regularly move in short bursts — running to catch a ball,  racing up and down stairs to collect toys — are just as healthy as kids  who participate in sports that require vigorous, sustained exercise. 
 Could pushing people to exercise more actually be contributing to our  obesity problem? In some respects, yes. Because exercise depletes not  just the body's muscles but the brain's self-control "muscle" as well,  many of us will feel greater entitlement to eat a bag of chips during  that lazy time after we get back from the gym. This explains why  exercise could make you heavier — or at least why even my wretched four  hours of exercise a week aren't eliminating all my fat. It's likely that  I am more sedentary during my nonexercise hours than I would be if I  didn't exercise with such Puritan fury. If I exercised less, I might  feel like walking more instead of hopping into a cab; I might have  enough energy to shop for food, cook and then clean instead of ordering a  satisfyingly greasy burrito. 
Closing the Energy Gap 
The problem ultimately is about not exercise itself but the way we've  come to define it. Many obesity researchers now believe that very  frequent, low-level physical activity — the kind humans did for tens of  thousands of years before the leaf blower was invented — may actually  work better for us than the occasional bouts of exercise you get as a  gym rat. "You cannot sit still all day long and then have 30 minutes of  exercise without producing stress on the muscles," says Hans-Rudolf  Berthoud, a neurobiologist at LSU's Pennington Biomedical Research  Center who has studied nutrition for 20 years. "The muscles will ache,  and you may not want to move after. But to burn calories, the muscle  movements don't have to be extreme. It would be better to distribute the  movements throughout the day." 
 For his part, Berthoud rises at 5 a.m. to walk around his neighborhood  several times. He also takes the stairs when possible. "Even if people  can get out of their offices, out from in front of their computers, they  go someplace like the mall and then take the elevator," he says. "This  is the real problem, not that we don't go to the gym enough." (Read "Is There a Laziness Gene?")
 I was skeptical when Berthoud said this. Don't you need to raise your  heart rate and sweat in order to strengthen your cardiovascular system?  Don't you need to push your muscles to the max in order to build them? 
 Actually, it's not clear that vigorous exercise like running carries  more benefits than a moderately strenuous activity like walking while  carrying groceries. You regularly hear about the benefits of exercise in  news stories, but if you read the academic papers on which these  stories are based, you frequently see that the research subjects who  were studied didn't clobber themselves on the elliptical machine. A  routine example: in June the Association for Psychological Science  issued a news release saying that "physical exercise ... may indeed  preserve or enhance various aspects of cognitive functioning." But in  fact, those who had better cognitive function merely walked more and  climbed more stairs. They didn't even walk faster; walking speed wasn't  correlated with cognitive ability. 
 There's also growing evidence that when it comes to preventing certain  diseases, losing weight may be more important than improving  cardiovascular health. In June, Northwestern University researchers  released the results of the longest observational study ever to  investigate the relationship between aerobic fitness and the development  of diabetes. The results? Being aerobically fit was far less important  than having a normal body mass index in preventing the disease. And as  we have seen, exercise often does little to help heavy people reach a  normal weight. (Read "Physical Fitness — How Not to Get Sick.")
 So why does the belief persist that exercise leads to weight loss, given  all the scientific evidence to the contrary? Interestingly, until the  1970s, few obesity researchers promoted exercise as critical for weight  reduction. As recently as 1992, when a stout Bill Clinton became famous  for his jogging and McDonald's habits, the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition  published an article that began, "Recently, the interest in the  potential of adding exercise to the treatment of obesity has increased."  The article went on to note that incorporating exercise training into  obesity treatment had led to "inconsistent" results. "The increased  energy expenditure obtained by training may be compensated by a decrease  in non-training physical activities," the authors wrote.  
 Then how did the exercise-to-lose-weight mantra become so ingrained?  Public-health officials have been reluctant to downplay exercise because  those who are more physically active are, overall, healthier. Plus,  it's hard even for experts to renounce the notion that exercise is  essential for weight loss. For years, psychologist Kelly Brownell ran a  lab at Yale that treated obese patients with the standard,  drilled-into-your-head combination of more exercise and less food. "What  we found was that the treatment of obesity was very frustrating," he  says. Only about 5% of participants could keep the weight off, and  although those 5% were more likely to exercise than those who got fat  again, Brownell says if he were running the program today, "I would  probably reorient toward food and away from exercise." In 2005, Brownell  co-founded Yale's Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity, which  focuses on food marketing and public policy — not on encouraging more  exercise. 
 Some research has found that the obese already "exercise" more than most  of the rest of us. In May, Dr. Arn Eliasson of the Walter Reed Army  Medical Center reported the results of a small study that found that  overweight people actually expend significantly more calories every day  than people of normal weight — 3,064 vs. 2,080. He isn't the first  researcher to reach this conclusion. As science writer Gary Taubes noted  in his 2007 book Good Calories, Bad Calories: Fats, Carbs, and the Controversial Science of Diet and Health,  "The obese tend to expend more energy than lean people of comparable  height, sex, and bone structure, which means their metabolism is  typically burning off more calories rather than less." 
 In short, it's what you eat, not how hard you try to work it off, that  matters more in losing weight. You should exercise to improve your  health, but be warned: fiery spurts of vigorous exercise could lead to  weight gain. I love how exercise makes me feel, but tomorrow I might  skip the VersaClimber — and skip the blueberry bar that is my usual  postexercise reward. 
  
 
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