ANALYSIS: South-East Asia looks to US for support on its sea claims

Hanoi - In a bar in central Vietnam, a table of men rise to their feet, salute and raise their glasses to a group of US Navy officers in uniform who have just walked in.
The show of solidarity is genuine and topical. The officers are taking part in joint naval activities off the coastal city of Da Nang this week in a bid to forge closer ties between the two nations but also to demonstrate those ties to any regional observers.
It's a strategy being adopted by several nations in South-East Asia as countries seek a counterweight to China's increasing pressure over disputed territory in the South China Sea.
The simmering dispute has dominated talks by foreign ministers of the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Bali this week.
Although US Navy officials in Da Nang insisted the activities were not related to rising tensions with China, Beijing has complained that their timing was 'inappropriate.'
Many observers agreed that, while the activities were long-planned, they are clearly part of a US plan to bulk up the capacities of allies in the region, in particular those that have overlapping sovereignty claims with China.
'We have a national interest in freedom of navigation, in unimpeded economic development and commerce, and in respect for international law,' US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said last month in Singapore.
China claims almost all the South China Sea, including the potentially oil- and gas-rich Spratly Islands. Taiwan and four ASEAN members - Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei - have also staked claims.
Temperatures have 'never been higher' since the end of the Cold War, said Ian Storey, security analyst at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.
The tensions have risen since Vietnam and the Philippines accused China of disrupting energy exploration in recent months, he said.
'China is opposed to the internationalization of the South China Sea,' he said. 'For example, they reject a role for ASEAN as an organization in resolving the dispute.'
As a big country, China wants to 'throw its weight around' with smaller countries and deal with each claim bilaterally, Storey said.
This is why it has been alarmed by signs of US intervention and warned those countries that have invited Washington to get involved not to play with fire, he said.
ASEAN members have been looking for a way to stand up for themselves without alienating China, on which many also depend as a major trading partner.
Stronger ties with the United States, for example through naval activities, is an effective way to advertise an 'insurance policy' against possible Chinese aggression, Storey said.
Jessica Brown, research fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, said it's an important balancing act.
Most countries would rather not depend on a more powerful ally, she said, but the US has a track record as a good guarantor of regional security whereas China is 'an unknown quality' so far, she said.
The joint military training sessions and the presence of the US Navy in the region is the preferred option among ASEAN members for preserving the status quo, Brown said.
She said it was questionable whether, unassisted, ASEAN could realistically play a role in assuring regional security.
Getting the bigger countries talking at meetings like Bali is important, Brown said.
The ASEAN ministers were scheduled to meet their counterparts from Russia, China, the US and other countries this week as part of the ASEAN Regional Forum, the largest security forum in the region.
On Thursday, the ASEAN and Chinese ministers were set to discuss a long-awaited agreement guiding the conduct of countries in the South China Sea, which is a supplement to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which was signed in 2002.
Brown was sceptical the additional code would make a difference.
'This is going to relate to issues of exploration and maritime traffic, but it's not necessarily going to relate to the territorial disputes,' she said.
The maritime territories, key to the disagreements, would still be open to bilateral negotiations, she said.
Storey was also pessimistic. For the nine years since the 2002 agreement, the parties have disagreed over how to apply its provisions for respecting the status quo.
'That's one of the reasons why tensions have got so bad in the last two or three years,' he said.
The success of the next agreement would depend on how specific and binding any guidelines are.
'They need to define concrete, confidence-building methods and conflict-prevention measures' if there is to be any chance of reducing tensions and preventing further incidents at sea, he said.