Asia's Mistrust of China

Hillary Clinton is attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum in Bali this weekend—the same event at which the U.S. Secretary of State surprised the Chinese last year by declaring that Washington wants to play a role in resolving disputes over the South China Sea. Nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines asked Washington to show leadership, and the Obama Administration responded.

This year should see fewer fireworks, as all sides are eager to announce some progress, no matter how slight. As the Journal reported yesterday, diplomats this week reached agreement on guidelines for behavior in the troubled waters, although a binding code of conduct remains out of reach.

Feel-good gestures aside, the nations of Southeast Asia have grown only more fearful of Beijing since last year, and with good reason. In recent days, Chinese forces have continued to harass vessels from the other claimants in the South China Sea. This has many observers mystified. Pushing its neighbors closer to Washington is hardly in China's interests, especially when it needs many more years of "peaceful rise" before it can challenge the U.S. military.

And yet the behavior persists. So the U.S. and its regional friends need to look for other reasons why Beijing's leaders are acting this way. The best explanation is that they are influenced by their past rhetoric, domestic politics and perhaps most important, China's strategic culture.

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Associated Press

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Hanoi, Vietnam.

In this light, it's worth remembering that China has fanned the flames of nationalism in the past, making de-escalation difficult. The People's Daily articles praising the brave soldiers defending the motherland's tiniest specks of territory in the South China Sea seemed harmless 20 years ago, when those men were camped out in rudimentary shacks on the reefs. But now the country has the military capability to back up its expansive claims. The leaders who run the Party's security apparatus are ascendant, and they are using appeals to nationalism as a way to bolster social stability.

It's also the case that China doesn't always value consistency or reciprocity in its relationships. Beijing has declared that its exclusive economic zone is off limits to foreign navies, a creative reinterpretation of the Law of the Sea. When a U.S. Navy ship reconnoitered in international waters off Hainan Island in March 2009, China's maritime militia, disguised as fishermen, drove it away. But Chinese vessels have conducted similar activity in Japan's EEZ.

Finally, there is the fact that Chinese strategists have always valued the element of surprise, going back to Sun Tsu's "Art of War" some 2,500 years ago. At the start of all major conflicts of the last 60 years—in Korea, Tibet, India and Vietnam—Chinese forces struck without warning. The People's Liberation Army does not reveal its true budget and gives only a limited view of its capabilities. As in the 2009 case, the PLA navy employs disguised fishing boats in South China Sea conflicts, which makes its moves more stealthy and also more difficult to defend without risking civilian casualties.

This makes the neighbors fear China, since as long as disputes are not resolved, it is impossible to discount the possibility that the PLA will strike. Public statements are not a reliable guide to intentions; when the threats and provocations stop, that could be the most dangerous time. China has also taken advantage of periods when the superpowers were drawing down in the region: The PLA Navy invaded islands held by the Vietnamese in 1974, after the U.S. withdrew from South Vietnam, and in 1984, after the Soviets left Cam Ranh Bay.

China's neighbors are well aware of her history and culture, and that is why they mistrust her and want the U.S. to continue to be the guarantor of peace in the region, as it has been for the last 60 years. They certainly hope that Beijing will return to its smile diplomacy of a few years ago and pledge to abide by a binding code of conduct in the South China Sea. But whatever they may say in public this weekend, they're not holding their breath. The message Mrs. Clinton will get in her private meetings is that Southeast Asians want Washington to strengthen diplomatic and military ties in East Asia.