Vietnam’s National Assembly opens today after a series of actions last year that suggest the top legislative body is growing more assertive and willing to criticize the government.
The assembly’s June 2010 rejection of a $56 billion rail line shows the institution could play a larger role on issues such as the economy, said Juerg Vontobel, founder of the U.K.- listed Vietnam Holding Ltd. (VNH) fund. Vietnamese inflation is at the highest level since 2008 and the country’s credit rating was downgraded last year by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.
“The National Assembly was empowered by the fact that they were able to have an impact on the high-speed rail project,” Vontobel said in a telephone interview. “If the economy doesn’t improve, I would expect them to continue to be critical of economic policies.”
The assembly, which opens with 500 members following May elections, is scheduled to confirm Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung for a second term after the Communist Party reappointed him to the governing Politburo in January. The body will then vote on Dung’s personnel picks, including Nguyen Van Binh, a deputy governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, to lead the central bank, according to three people with knowledge of policy makers’ discussions on the matter.
‘Putting Pressure’
“The Vietnamese National Assembly is the most independent in any Communist system, either contemporary or historically,” said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who specializes in Southeast Asia and has written a book on Vietnam. “I expect them to continue putting pressure on government leaders.”
Among the assembly’s lawmakers are 42 deputies who are not members of the Communist Party. Independent Dang Thanh Tam, chairman of Kinh Bac City Development Share Holding Corp. (KBC), is one of the country’s wealthiest entrepreneurs.
“It’s true to say that the National Assembly has become a more vibrant institution, but it is still dominated by members of the party and is thoroughly establishment,” said Martin Gainsborough, a professor of development politics at the U.K.’s University of Bristol and the author of a book on Vietnamese politics. “It’s not currently developing as an independent forum that’s going to take on the party.”
The May National Assembly elections were the first since 2007 and came after the Communist Party said it would allow private business owners into the party in January.
Heated Questioning
Questioning from lawmakers in the assembly became more heated last year after the near bankruptcy of Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group, or Vinashin. Legislator Nguyen Minh Thuyet called for a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Dung, which was never held.
An increase in the number of full-time members to 33 percent from 29 percent may also result in sharper questioning, said Edmund Malesky, an associate professor in the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California in San Diego.
“Full-time members tend to be more active in query sessions and in the debates over legislation,” Malesky said. “If the top leadership is split, the National Assembly becomes an important forum for serious debate and activity.”
--Jason Folkmanis in Ho Chi Minh City. Editors: Patrick Harrington, John Brinsley
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Folkmanis in Ho Chi Minh City at folkmanis@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net
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