Hillary Clinton as a mediator between China and ASEAN?

On Wednesday, US State Secretary Hillary Clinton is completing her tour to India and heading to Bali, Indonesia, where she is scheduled to take part in a ministerial meeting of ASEAN countries.

In fact, this part of her 11-day tour of Asia – from Turkey to South-East Asia and Hong Kong - only demonstrates the high aspirations felt in Washington DC concerning the global role of the US.

The Asia – Pacific region has recently become one of the most crucial points of international interaction and competition. The degree of temperatures there is governed by a mere state of bilateral relations between the US and China as the two major powers in the region.

For decades, both countries have tried their most to avoid direct confrontation. They have tried to build up a number of their satellites with US trying to surround China with a number of countries, if not hostile, but at least alien to the purposes of Chinese foreign policy. On the other hand, as it often happens, the satellites have not shown their complete readiness to join the US-centered system in the region and started forming other regional alliances in order to avert the growing Chinese challenge.

The recent events in the South China Sea are just another example of the same tendency. Out of the 200 islands in the Sea China claims to possess sovereign rights to most of them, which would lead to increasing Chinese participation in the affairs of the South China Sea, and - inevitably – to a new round of an arms race and further increased tension in the area.

In this context none of the global powers (or, at least, the ones that pretend to be such) can step aside. The US administration has already issued a number of stern warnings addressed to China. But the Chinese Communist leadership does not seem to be listening. At least, the ministerial meeting scheduled for Bali is most likely going to end in an “empty” resolution.

During her 3-day visit to India Hillary Clinton – although she had every opportunity to do so – never took the chance of commenting on the most burning problems facing India. She did not dwell on politics like terrorism. She DID promise to continue pressure on Pakistan, but that statement is mostly regarded in the Indian press as the one bearing mostly propagandist weight.

In any case, much will be clear on Thursday, when the ministerial meeting is going to take place. Until now, China has managed to antagonize almost all its neighbors in the region, sometimes even falling on the brink of the South East Asian politics and means to avoid a major confrontation.

But in India most observers have not heard what they had been hoping for. There was a very simple task for Ms. Hillary – to call on the India-neighboring Pakistan to stop its alleged connections with the most radical Islamic fighters. This could have brought its positive effect, but for one “small” factor – Muslims in the US comprise about 11 percent of the population. Therefore all good-intended calls on other parties to stick to “universal human rights principles» will inevitably end in nothing.

So, the situation in the region cannot be described by the old motto, “Whoever is my enemy’s friend, is my associate”.

Definitely, China and India are waging a fierce competition in the area. While India is – by and large – supported by the US, China has to rely on itself. Ms Clinton’s tour was meant to demonstrate India and South East Asian countries that the US is not going to abandon them. On the other hand, the course of events in areas quite distant from South East Asia – like in Yemen and Middle East – does not give any ground to believe that the US interference guarantees a lasting peace.

Thus, having reached virtually nothing in India, Ms. Hillary is going to pursue her Administration’s policy in South East Asia. But apart from several – albeit rather loud – reprimands addressed to China, what could one expect?