China runs gauntlet in South China Seas

By Jian Junbo and Wu Zhong

LONDON and HONG KONG - The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will celebrate its 90th birthday on July 1. While the party has withstood tough tests to reach this point, without doubt there are challenges ahead. One immediate issue is the escalating tensions on the South China Sea with neighboring countries, Vietnam in particular.

For Beijing, this is not simply an issue of international relations. It also has great impact on China's strategy for a "peaceful rise" and on domestic stability. This may explain why so far Beijing has exercised self-restraint in the face of what it sees as provocations by Vietnam. These included high-profile war games in disputed territories, issuing toughly-worded statements to condemn

 
"China's invasion" and allowing fierce protests against China.

Beijing's reaction has been low key. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Li reiterated on June 16 that China would always seek a bilateral solution to disagreements on the South China Sea, and not use or threaten force. He added that China would work together with all parties to effectively implement the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and maintain stability in the region.

There are ample reasons for China to cool tensions with Vietnam. Firstly, territorial disputes between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea are not a new issue - the dispute largely emerged in the 1970s after the discovery of huge oil and gas reserves there.

Vietnam (and some other Southeast Asian countries) began to gradually colonize some islands and explore oil and gas in waters that Hanoi had previously recognized as China's sovereign territories. For instance, the People's Republic of China (PRC) issued a declaration on September 4, 1958, defining its territorial waters which encompassed the Nansha (Spratly) and Xisha (Paracel) Islands.

North Vietnam's then prime minister Pham Van Dong sent a diplomatic note to Chinese premier Zhou Enlai stating, "The Government of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam respects this decision and will give instructions to its State bodies to respect the 12-mile [19-kilometer] width of the territorial waters of China in all their relations in the maritime field with the PRC [People's Republic of China]." The diplomatic note was written on September 14 and was publicized on Vietnam's Nhan Dan newspaper on September 22, 1958. [1]

To concentrate on China's own economic development with reform and opening up, Deng Xiaoping then set a policy of "shelving disputes for joint cultivation" of the South China Sea.

After three decades of reform and opening up, China has grown into the world's second-largest economy. But Beijing is fully aware of emerging problems at home. In this regard, a peaceful international environment is crucial for China. President Hu Jintao is seeking a "peaceful rise" to ease concern that China may seek world hegemony.

In recent years there have been growing calls, especially from the United States, for China to act as a "responsible player" in international affairs.

Therefore, Beijing does not want to take tit-for-tat actions against Vietnam that could jeopardize its image.

China may also see Vietnam's provocation as related to the latter's domestic issues. Vietnam's economy is in a bad shape and public discontent is growing. It is an ancient Chinese wisdom (Vietnam is strongly influenced by Chinese culture) that a foreign enemy can be of great use in easing domestic tensions.

Beijing does not want to be goaded by Hanoi. Moreover, China has kept a wary eye on the US ever since Washington announced its "return to Asia". Vietnam has openly called for US intervention in the South China Sea, and if Beijing reacts too harshly, this may give the US a convenient excuse to step in.

For Beijing, which always opposes any attempt to internationalize the South China Sea issue, US intervention would further complicate the matter.

On June 22, China's Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai warned the US to stay out of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea:

I believe some countries now are playing with fire. And I hope the US won't 'draw this fire onto itself'." Apparently referring to remarks from Washington about free passage in the South China Sea, Hong had said earlier: "China's maintenance of sovereignty in the South China Sea ... will never influence the freedom of navigation of other countries in the South China Sea.

These factors are behind Beijing's low-key reaction. However, the strategy means taking some risks on the home front. The Chinese public has criticized their government as "too weak" and "spineless" over the issue, demanding "another severe punishment" on Vietnam - China officials describe the war against Vietnam in 1979 as a "war of punishment" for its invasion of Cambodia.

While netizens have not criticized top Chinese leaders, they have taken aim at generals of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), as well as officials and media commentators who have appealed for calm. Websites of state-run media are a prominent forum for nationalists expressing their frustrations.

One of the more striking comments was found on the online forum of the website of Global Times, a sister publication of the People's Daily, the CCP's flagship newspaper:

Confronting such a hooligan country and in face of losses of national territories, you spineless generals and officials must listen to people's voices: "We must strike back! We must take back our territories lost because of the treacherous shelving disputes for joint development." China is in peril today mainly because the government is full of corrupt officials ... and party members and cadres have lost their faith! Now only the powerless, penniless but selfless and fearless grass-roots people remain patriotic.

Another comment on the same forum said China must learn from the US to dare to "bully small nations".

Beijing is walking a tight rope between behaving as a "responsible player" in international arena and responding to these domestic pressures. The balancing act is particularly fraught ahead of the CPP's 90th birthday, which the party will use to justify the legitimacy of its continuous rule by glorifying past successes.

If there is a danger that the CPP might lose the people's support over a certain policy, then it would have to change it. Needless to say, the "core interest" of all "core interests" for the CCP is to continue its rule of China. Compared with this, other affairs - such as maintaining regional peace and good relations with other countries or acting like a "responsible player" - are all secondary.

Apparently in response to the rising nationalistic zeal over Vietnam's "provocations", China has quietly taken some action, such as staging a war game on Hainan Island and sending a sea border patrol boat through the South China Sea to Singapore.

For the time being, Beijing can still feel comfortable over the nationalism rage as its expression is largely limited to the virtual space (the Internet). There are no sharp criticisms of Beijing's policy in state-controlled media or any spontaneous street demonstrations in protest at "Vietnam's invasion". The row, for the time being, is still not big enough to provoke the social instability that the CCP considers a threat.

However, if Hanoi keeps escalating tensions, and especially if the US sides with Vietnam, Beijing will be forced to take more radical actions. Despite its low-profile stance, Beijing has imagined all possible scenarios and prepared for the worst.

For the sake of its "peaceful rise", war is the last thing the Chinese government or people want. Fortunately, there is no sign so far indicating the current tension between Vietnam and China is likely to escalate into a violent conflict.

Instead, the latest development suggests that tensions between China and Vietnam have eased. Xinhua reported this week a statement on the website of China's Defense Ministry that China and Vietnam conducted joint naval patrols in the Beibu (Tonkin) Gulf (between Vietnam and China's Hainan) from June 19 to 20.

After the joint patrols, a Vietnamese naval delegation will visit the coastal city of Zhanjiang in south China's Guangdong province from June 21 to 24. The statement said the joint naval patrols and the port call were part of a scheduled bilateral annual exchange plan, but stressed it was "a friendly exchange activity between the two armed forces".

That such activity could take place at this juncture is strong evidence that tensions between the two countries on the South China Sea has so far not affected normal channels.

Note
1. File: 1958 diplomatic note from Pham van Dong to Zhou Enlai, Wikimedia.


Dr Jian Junbo, an assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China, is currently an academic visitor at London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom. Wu Zhong is China Editor of Asia Times Online.

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