Thứ Sáu, 12 tháng 11, 2010

If China bullies on the high seas, it may need to be taught a naval lesson

CHINA shows every sign of becoming an increasingly assertive military power.
Since the 2008 global financial crisis confirmed its growing economic strength and status relative to that of the US, we have witnessed a number of actions that suggest Beijing is beginning to throw its weight about.
It began with its attitudes towards climate change at the Copenhagen conference last December and continues with Beijing's stance on not revaluing its grossly undervalued currency.
It is in the military field, however, that China's increasing assertiveness is most worrying.
There have been a significant number of maritime incidents lately where China shows every sign of flexing its muscles. China's claims to disputed islands and offshore territories are becoming increasingly stridet
In October, Beijing objected to US naval exercises in the Yellow Sea off the coast of Korea. Washington duly postponed an exercise to be led by the nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington. The decision to cancel the exercise was apparently made to avoid problems with China before this month's G20 summit in Seoul. A Pentagon spokesman said that the aircraft carrier's participation was "not meant to send a message to the Chinese". One wonders how much further US appeasement of China will go.Most recently, they have culminated in Beijing's claim that the whole of the South China Sea is a "core interest", giving it the territorial status normally reserved for Taiwan and Tibet.
In September, Beijing and Tokyo had their worst spat in years. It started when Japan arrested a Chinese trawler captain after his ship had deliberately collided with two Japanese Coast Guard vessels near the Senkaku islands, which are administered by Japan and known as Diaoyu in China. These islands are located in rich fishing grounds and near suspected gas deposits in waters between Okinawa and Taiwan.
Beijing ominously threatened Tokyo with the full consequences of its actions. Japan duly released the captain, but there have been reports that China has again dispatched fisheries patrol boats with the aim of "protecting the legal rights of Chinese fishermen". In the meantime, there have been well-orchestrated protest rallies in China, chanting anti-Japanese slogans and calling for boycotts of Japanese goods. Restrictions have also been placed on China's export to Japan of rare mineral earths critical in the manufacture of advanced electronic equipment.
Beijing's claim to the entire South China Sea is not new but in the past it has put its territorial ambitions to one side in the cause of supporting what it quaintly calls "a harmonious region". Several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines, have overlapping claims with China in the South China Sea. However, in July the ASEAN countries were reminded by China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi that "China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact".
But the real fact is that Beijing shows every sign of bullying Japan over disputed territories such as the Senkaku islands, as well as rejecting South Korea's internationally documented evidence that China's ally, North Korea, torpedoed the South Korean corvette Cheonan last February.
Now, China not only challenges the freedom of the US to use the Yellow Sea but it appears unwilling to observe freedom of navigation through its claimed 200-nautical mile (370km) exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
In my view, disagreements with China over the appropriate use of the maritime domain are set to be a growing challenge to regional security. Former chief of the defence force, admiral Chris Barrie, sees an end to the "freedom of the high seas regime" in the foreseeable future. The question that arises here is whether the US will have the stomach to face a naval conflict with China over a serious difference of opinion about control of the South China Sea?
It will not be long before the Western maritime alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes the US, Japan and Australia, has to focus on how we deal collectively with China's rising naval power. This does not mean the containment of China, but it does mean that Allied naval forces will need to ensure that China respects international maritime law. That may mean one day that China will have to be taught a military lesson at sea.
Beijing is clearly beginning to push the envelope of what is acceptable behaviour. If it continues to throw its weight around it will be best that its unacceptable attitude is checked now rather than later when it becomes more powerful. Beijing makes no secret of its ambitions to develop what it calls "far sea defence", that is, powerful military forces capable of deterring the US from operating in the Taiwan Straits and being able to project power in what it terms the "first island chain", which includes the South China Sea.
China's co-operation is undoubtedly important to many of the region's most pressing challenges, including nuclear proliferation and dealing with North Korea. And it has legitimate concerns about the security of its crude oil imports, more than 80 per cent of which pass through the waters of Southeast Asia.
But it must not be allowed to get away with blatant provocation and rejection of international maritime law.
Paul Dibb is emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University. He is a former deputy secretary for defence.

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